Forecasting of Average Air Temperature in the City of Pekanbaru Using the Holt-Winters Method

Rado Yendra, Muhammad Marizal, Hilvania Ramadhani

Abstract


Global climate change causes significant fluctuations in air temperature, including in the city of Pekanbaru, therefore, a predictive system is needed that can help the government and the community in dealing with climate impacts, one of which is through air temperature forecasting. This study aims to forecast the average air temperature in Pekanbaru City using the Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method, which is known to be effective in capturing seasonal patterns and trends. The data used is monthly average air temperature data from 2017 to 2024 obtained from BMKG. The analysis was carried out using an addictive approach and model evaluation was carried out based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The results show that the best model is obtained on a parameter with a MAPE value of 2.684. This model is then used to forecast the air temperature in 2025, which is predicted to decrease gradually. The results of this forecast are expected to be a reference in planning and decision-making related to climate change mitigation in the Pekanbaru area

Keywords


forecasting; air temperature; Holt-Winters; time series; Pekanbaru

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24014/icopss.v4i2.37868

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Journal ICoPSS : Indonesian Council of Premier Statistical Science

Publisher: Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau
Website: http://ejournal.uin-suska.ac.id/index.php/icopsic
Official Email: ICoPremierStat@uin-suska.ac.id
Address: Jl. H.R. Soebrantas Km. 15.5 No. 155 Gedung Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi UIN Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau Kel. Tuahmadani Kec. Tampan Pekanbaru - Riau 28293 

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