Designing A Conceptual Model for Cooking Oil Scarcity in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia, a significant global palm oil market, has continuously increased Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production, becoming an essential export commodity. However, recent concerns, particularly in the cooking oil sector, have started scarcity issues in October 2021. Despite government efforts, including higher export taxes and eased biodiesel policies, the shortage persisted until now, resulting in a significant price. This research aims to develop a conceptual model illustrating the relationships among variables when designing a model for cooking oil scarcity. The conceptual model is the initial step in creating a dynamic model of cooking oil scarcity. Model conceptualization enhances the visualization of relationships between variables and involves using Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). In creating the model of cooking oil scarcity, there are three subsystems: the CPO Industry subsystem, which models from the palm oil plantation to CPO production; the cooking oil industry subsystem, which models from the population to cooking oil stock in the market; and the biodiesel industry and other industries subsystem, which models from CPO demand to its effect on the CPO stock in the market. Each subsystem will produce different outputs and interact with other subsystems.