Application of Fuzzy Time Series Method Cheng Model in Forecasting Stock Prices PT Bukit Asam Tbk

Alya Nadhira Nur, Esther SM Nababan, Parapat Gultom, Sutarman Sutarman

Abstract


Investment in stocks is one type of investment that can get huge profits, but there are also great risks. So it is necessary to analyze in advance before starting an investment in stocks, in order to avoid losses. One way is to forecast the stock price using fuzzy time series Cheng. The data used is weekly period stock price data from PTBA in January 2020 - December 2022, which can be categorized as a form of time series. From this research, the forecasting value for the next period is Rp. 3797. Which results in a MAPE of 4.2%, which means that FTS Cheng method is very good to use in forecasting the share price of PT Bukit Asam Tbk, because it produces a MAPE value <10%, and produces an RMSE of 158 rupiah, which means the average of the difference between actual and forecast values.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24014/sitekin.v21i1.22910

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