Adaptive Strategy and Sustainability in the National Fertilizer Industry under VUCA Conditions: A Systematic Literature Review and Bibliometric Analysis

Niera Feblidiyanti; Ahmad Syafrudidin Indrapriyatna; Elita Amrina; Franka Hendra

doi:10.24014/jti.v12i1.39409

Adaptive Strategy and Sustainability in the National Fertilizer Industry under VUCA Conditions: A Systematic Literature Review and Bibliometric Analysis

Niera Feblidiyanti, Ahmad Syafrudidin Indrapriyatna, Elita Amrina, Franka Hendra

Abstract

The national fertilizer industry faces volatile energy and raw-material prices, global supply disruptions, policy uncertainty, subsidy pressures, and rising decarbonization expectations. This study reviews recent literature on adaptive strategy and sustainability in the fertilizer industry under volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) conditions. A systematic literature review following PRISMA 2020 was combined with bibliometric analysis using bibliometrix/Biblioshiny. The final search was conducted on 10 December 2025 in Scopus and ScienceDirect for publications from 2020 to 2025. A total of 824 records were identified, 63 duplicates were removed, 761 titles and abstracts were screened, 173 records were retained for bibliometric mapping, and 23 full-text articles were selected for in-depth synthesis. An extended literature review matrix of 164 cleaned articles was used to triangulate themes, methods, and research gaps. The results show that sustainability, low-carbon fertilizer transformation, supply chain resilience, digital transformation, adaptive strategy, and VUCA-driven uncertainty dominate the literature, but their integration into a strategy-oriented framework remains limited. The novelty of this study lies in developing an integrative framework linking VUCA pressures, dynamic capabilities, supply chain resilience, adaptive strategic responses, and sustainability performance for national fertilizer industry transformation

Full Text:

PDF

References

Y. Gao, Z. Feng, and S. Zhang, “Managing supply chain resilience in the era of VUCA,” Front. Eng. Manag., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 465–470, 2021, doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0164-2.

K. Grzybowska and A. A. Tubis, “Resiliencia de la cadena de suministro en la realidad VUCA: un estudio Delphi internacional,” Sostenibilidad (Suiza), vol. 14, no. 17, 2022.

A. Kowalska, M. Hałka, A. Budzyńska, M. Kicia, and K. Terpiłowski, “Fertilizer Price Surge in Poland and Beyond: Seeking the Way Forward towards Sustainable Development,” Sustain., vol. 16, no. 16, 2024, doi: 10.3390/su16166943.

C. Troise, V. Corvello, A. Ghobadian, and N. O’Regan, “How can SMEs successfully navigate VUCA environment: The role of agility in the digital transformation era,” Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 174, p. 121227, 2022, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121227.

I. Atanassova, P. Bednar, H. Khan, and Z. Khan, “Managing the VUCA environment: The dynamic role of organizational learning and strategic agility in B2B versus B2C firms,” Ind. Mark. Manag., vol. 125, pp. 12–28, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2024.12.008.

J. Zhang, Y. Qi, H. Xu, M. Chang, and L. Yang, “Promoting the Sustainable Development of Organizations: Technological Capability, Environmental Uncertainty, and Enterprise Exploratory Innovation,” Sustain., vol. 17, no. 14, pp. 1–25, 2025, doi: 10.3390/su17146251.

H. T. Ottermann, K. J. Truter, S. J. Haarhoff, D. van der Westhuizen, F. Meyer, and P. A. Swanepoel, “Trends and drivers of fertiliser consumption in the South African agricultural industry,” Agrekon, vol. 64, no. 2, pp. 149–166, Apr. 2025, doi: 10.1080/03031853.2025.2515868.

Z. Chen et al., “Advances in Barley Breeding for Improving Nitrogen Use Efficiency,” Agronomy, vol. 12, no. 7, pp. 1–13, 2022, doi: 10.3390/agronomy12071682.

Z. Wang et al., “Research on the preparations and properties of fertilizer recycling from biomass ash, slags, and waste acid liquid from desulfurization and denitrification process of flue gas,” Biomass Convers. Biorefinery, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 3235–3247, 2024, doi: 10.1007/s13399-022-02755-z.

A. Wendimu, T. Yoseph, and T. Ayalew, “Ditching Phosphatic Fertilizers for Phosphate-Solubilizing Biofertilizers: A Step towards Sustainable Agriculture and Environmental Health,” Sustain., vol. 15, no. 2, 2023, doi: 10.3390/su15021713.

K. Jantapoon and K. Saenchaiyathon, “Sharing, technology, and resilience in agricultural SMEs: pathways to sustainable supply chains under VUCA conditions,” Clean. Logist. Supply Chain, vol. 17, p. 100285, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clscn.2025.100285.

H. Morão, “The economic consequences of fertilizer supply shocks,” Food Policy, vol. 133, p. 102835, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102835.

R. Vos, J. Glauber, C. Hebebrand, and B. Rice, “Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability,” Food Policy, vol. 133, p. 102790, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790.

M. J. Page et al., “The PRISMA 2020 statement: An updated guideline for reporting systematic reviews,” Bmj, vol. 372, 2021, doi: 10.1136/bmj.n71.

M. Aria and C. Cuccurullo, “bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis,” J. Informetr., vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 959–975, 2017, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2017.08.007.

I. Krimi, Z. Bahou, and R. Al-Aomar, “Resilient and sustainable B2B chemical supply chain capacity expansions: a systematic literature review,” J. Bus. Ind. Mark., vol. 39, no. 13, pp. 175–199, 2024, doi: 10.1108/JBIM-01-2024-0017.

A. Amico, L. Verginer, G. Casiraghi, G. Vaccario, and F. Schweitzer, “Adapting to disruptions: Managing supply chain resilience through product rerouting,” Sci. Adv., vol. 10, no. 3, p. eadj1194, Apr. 2026, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adj1194.

Y. Xue, J. Yan, M. Mohsin, and A. Mehak, “Supply chain risks in agri-food systems: a comprehensive review of economic vulnerabilities and mitigation approaches,” Front. Sustain. Food Syst., vol. 9, no. November, 2025, doi: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1649834.

S. Derici and N. Ö. Doğan, “Historical Evolution of Supply Chain Management in The VUCA Age: Sustainable, LARG and Digital Supply Chain Managements TT - Historical Evolution of Supply Chain Management in The VUCA Age: Sustainable, LARG and Digital Supply Chain Managements,” Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sos. Bilim. Derg., vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 273–293, 2025, doi: 10.21547/jss.1473810.

J. Hadachek, M. Ma, and R. J. Sexton, “Market structure and resilience of food supply chains under extreme events,” Am. J. Agric. Econ., vol. 106, no. 1, pp. 21–44, Jan. 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12393.

F. Lyu, J. Zhang, F. Liu, and H. Chu, “Decision Optimization of Manufacturing Supply Chain Based on Resilience,” Sustain., vol. 17, no. 14, pp. 1–18, 2025, doi: 10.3390/su17146519.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24014/jti.v12i1.39409