PERAMALAN PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT DENGAN METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Rahmadeni Rahmadeni, Anggun Nidia Egianta

Abstract


Oil palm is an important agricultural commodity that has a significant contribution to the global economy. One of the areas that produce oil palm plants in Indonesia is Riau province. Riau Province is the largest contributor to oil palm production on the island of Sumatra. Palm oil production always experiences changes in the increase and decrease in the amount of production. The purpose of this study is to determine the palm oil production data forecasting model. The method used in this research is the Exponential Smoothing method. Based on the research results obtained that with a MAPE of 7.63%, the Additive season Holt-Winter TES model shows a significant increase in forecasting accuracy compared to other models. So that the Holt-Winter TES model is the best model in forecasting palm oil production

Full Text:

PDF

References


F. Irawan,dkk, “Prediksi Tingkat Produksi Buah Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode Single

Moving Average,” Jurnal Informatika dan Teknologi., vol. 3, pp. 251–256, 2021.

Zuraina,W. Khonik. Buku Statistik Perkebunan 2021 - 2023. Jakarta: Kementrian

Pertanian Direktorat Jendral Perkebunan:2023:1-23.

R. U. Aulia, dkk, “Analisis Posisi Pasar Indonesia pada Pasar Refined Palm Oil (Rpo) di

Negara Importir,” Jurnal Peneliian Kelapa Sawit, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 1–12, 2019.

T. Safitri,A. Mila, R. Ferynaldo, N. Nurbaiti, I. Wati, “Perencanaan Pemerintah dalam

Peningkatan Produksi Dan Harga Kelapa Sawit Petani di Desa Mumpa Pasca Pandemi

Covid 19” vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 135–139, 2023.

H. Stephanie, N. Tinaprilla, and A. Rifin, “Efisiensi Pabrik Kelapa Sawit di Indonesia,”

Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia., vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 27–36, 2018.

N. Syaugia, R. Ahmad, and S. Martha, “Prediksi Produksi Kelapa Sawit di PTPN XIII

dengan Additive Outlier Pada Model Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

(SARIMA)” vol. 08, no. 4, pp. 875–882, 2019.

G. Agiyani and A. Sukma Wati, “Perbandingan Menggunakan Metode Exponential

Smoothing untuk Prediksi Jumlah Polis Asuransi Kendaraan pada PT X Kota Palembang,”

Jurnal Informatika Teknologi. vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 2774–2121, 2022.

A. T. Cikasungka,“Mimbar Agribisnis : PT Perkebunan Nusantara VIII Palm Oil

Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing Perkebunan Nusantara VIII unit Pabrik,” vol. 9,

no. 2, pp. 3273–3284, 2023.

Y. D. Rosita and L. S. Moonlight, “Perbandingan Metode Prediksi untuk Nilai Jual USD:

Holt-Winters, Holt’s, dan Single Exponential Smoothing,” JTIM Jurnal Teknologi

Informatika dan Multimedia., vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 322–333, 2024


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


FAKULTAS SAINS DAN TEKNOLOGI
UIN SUSKA RIAU
Kampus Raja Ali Haji
Gedung Fakultas Sains & Teknologi UIN Suska Riau
Jl.H.R.Soebrantas No.155 KM 18 Simpang Baru Panam, Pekanbaru 28293
Email: sntiki@uin-suska.ac.id