Peramalan Pencemaran Udara di Kota Pekanbaru Menggunakan Metode Box-Jenkins

Abstract

This paper discusses the forecasting model of air quality in Pekanbaru by parameters of sulfur
dioxide   SO2 by using Box-Jenkins. The procedure of determine the forecasting model by using Box-
Jenkins method that used stationary data, if was not stationary, it need differencing process, identification
model of ACF and PACF, parameter estimation, verification models by looking residual result, and
conducted the forecasting stage. The daily data used for the establishment of forecasting model was the
data from 24 November 2014 to 10 February 2015. The results showed that ARIMA(1,1,0) with model
Xt  0.4063Xt1  0.5937Xt2  at was a appropriate model to forecasting process. Forecasting results
indicated that the air quality increase if compared to the previous time, because the trend of the data air
quality followed data format of trend up.
Keywords: ARIMA, Box-Jenkins, Sulfur Dioxide